INS 280

INS 280, Spring 2008: The Italian Revolution

Political turmoil in Italy: Mani Pulite and its causes

Assignment: 1) Many believe that Italy’s democracy was not fully realized until mani pulite in the 90s; that Italy after WWII was much like Italy before WWII, without the fascist era. Do you think Italy was a full democracy in the first Republic? 2) What do you think caused mani pulite to work (theories will be discussed in seminar, and are at the end of this handout.)

Terms and Names: The first section of the hand out just gives numerous names and terms that may help you not be confused by the discussion or the notes.

Silvio Berlusconi: Prime Minister of Italy 1994-95, 2001-2006 Berlusconi is a media mogul who tries to claim he is symbolic of the new Italy, but at the same time faces corruption charges and uses his power to defend himself from prosecution in ways reminiscent of the “old” Italy. He was popular until recently, when poor economic performance and Berlusconi’s support of the American invasion of Iraq (opposed by most Italians) caused him to lose his 2006 re-election bid.

Christian Democrats (DC): The DC was the dominant actor in Italian politics from the grounding of the 1^st Republic to its fall in 1994. The DC held the Prime Minister’s position for most of that time, and always dominated the governments. This lengthy hold on power also helped allow corruption to grow. Since the DC was “hegemonic,” there was no real transfer of power from a government to an opposition until 1994; it was always adjustments to DC dominated coalition governments.

Carlo Ciampi: President of Italy until May 2006, Ciampi has served in numerous governments and as Prime Minister. Over 80, he is distinguished by the fact he survived the scandals with his integrity and reputation in tact. He is a fitting symbol of the transition from the old system to the new one. The new President is Giorgio Napolitano (note: the President is a symbolic figure with little political power – the Prime Minister holds political power and runs the legislative and executive functions of government).

Communist Party (PCI): The PCI was the main party on the Left, committed to Eurocommunism rather than Soviet style communism. They consistently neared 30% of the vote, but never could seriously hope to form a coalition. They peaked in the seventies as there was talk of a “great compromise” between the DC and PCI, and theoretically could have formed a coalition with the PSI in 1983, though the PSI was committed to working with the DC. The PCI survived by renaming itself the PDS then DS (Democratic Left) after the fall of Communism, and remains a potent force. A small number of hard core communists reject the change, and have formed a small party of “reconstituted communism.”

Conso Decree: This was an attempt to end the Mani Pulite investigations by giving immunity to all parliament members. Public outrage led to the President’s refusal to sign the decree, and ultimately made collapse of the old system impossible to stop.

Consociatavismo: Because there was so much instability in terms of governmental structure, most decisions were not made through debate and votes in the parliament, but through behind closed doors deal making and trade offs. This meant that the crises in governments was more spettacolo (spectacle) while in reality the same people (dominated by the DC) were making deals and running the show. Even the PCI was involved in some of this, despite being demonized publicly, without a chance to be part of a coalition.

Bettino Craxi: Head of the PSI (Italian Socialist Party), Craxi shifted the party from the left to the center, making a deal with the DC and becoming Prime Minister from1983-87. He was immensely popular and seen as a symbol for growing stability in Italy’s political system. In reality, he was bringing corruption to ever high levels, and later would become symbolic of the corruption and decadence of the system.

Fascism: Fascism, unlike the other ideologies, has no set definition. It’s basics are opposition to modern, secular life, even though embraces the dynamism, technology and change of modernism. It is anti-intellectual, anti-reason, and anti-rational. Fascists argued that humans are essentially emotional willful creatures who need heroic dreams and strong emotional bonds to be happy, and that liberalism and rational thought drains humanity of that vital spirit. Being anti-rational, fascists rejected the idea that there was a timeless truth; rather, truth was determined by those who had power. The role of elites was myth making, to give citizens a sense of meaning and belonging in a greater whole, an emotional connection that defied the constraints of reason and intellect. Usually this meant a strong embrace of nationalism, and a fanatical worship of the state. War, hero worship, and a desire to return to the primitive also permeate fascist thought. Not every form of fascism is racist, but Hitler used race and the German state as the basis of his fascist myth. Mussolini harkened back to the glory of Rome, and Franco had a more conservative form of fascism, embracing the “timeless values” of the Catholic church. Fascism tends to appeal to those with low self-esteem or problems in life, promising to make them part of something greater.

Hegemony: A term coined by Antonio Gramsci, a Communist imprisoned by Mussolini. Gramsci wondered why workers supported the fascists, when they were simply leading Italy into needless conflicts, and shifting wealth to the upper classes. He determined that people were, in essence, brainwashed by a culture that made it seem natural that the world be the way it was under fascism. He said communism could only win if it developed an alternate cultural view to the “hegemonic culture” that dominates. The term would later be applied to the DC, who was said to exercise a cultural and political hegemony over the Italian political discourse.

Liga Nord: Political movement led by Umberto Bossi to try to separate the North from the rest of Italy and create a new country: Padania. The party peaked in the late nineties, but overall most northerners are less concerned with independence than protesting incompetence. Bossi has often been accused of racist or neo-fascist rhetoric.

Mani Pulite: The “clean hands” campaign begun in Milano by magistrate Antonio DiPietro, it used strong armed judicial tactics (locking people away without charging them for long periods, pressuring them – many things that could not be done in the US, at least not before terrorism fears) to force confessions and get people to name names. The scandal ended up expanding across Italy, and altered the entire political system as people realized how corrupt and dishonest the political parties and most political leaders had become.

Mezzogiorno: Name given to the “south” in Italy. The gap between the north and the south is great both in terms of economic prosperity (the north is much wealthier), but also in culture, with the south more conservative and traditional. The south has had a traditional problem with the mafia as well, especially on Sicily.

Giorgio Napolitano: Current President of Italy, and a former member of the PCI, who was with the party since after WWII, joining it pre-war to fight fascism. He was barred from entering the US for a speaking engagement in the 70s because of his communism. That he now is President is symbolic of the changes both in Italy and the world.

Partiocracy: Term given to the way in which the parties governed Italy during the first republic. Because there were so many parties, and coalitions were always dominated by the DC, electoral politics was less about competition for votes, and more about parties making deals. Voting results were very stable, as people were loyal to their parties (through the late eighties), so politics turned into back room negotiations and trade offs. The secret ballot would allow some parties to condemn a proposal in public, but then based on a secret deal vote for it in private.

Romano Prodi: Prime Minister from 1996-98, and 2006 – present. Prodi represented the first left of center coalition, bringing the former communists into government for the first time. Prodi ultimately could not hold the coalition together, but the two years he was governing were important as Italy undertook significant reforms that allowed them to join the Eurozone. Prodi’s reputation for honesty and competence made him the choice to become President of the European Commission in 1999 when the entire commission resigned due to a scandal. Prodi is credited with guiding the EU through the process of monetary union, and maintaining progress on developing political union. He stepped down from the Commission in 2004 and won a narrow victory for his coalition over Berlusconi in 2006.

Proportional Representation: A system of government whereby the parliament is chosen on the basis of the percentage of votes a party gets. A voter casts her vote for a particular party, not a person. Since even a small percentage of the vote assures representation (some systems have cut offs like 5% or less do not get represented), proportional representation leads to multiparty systems, where governments are formed out of coalitions of parties. This strengthens small parties, both injecting new ideas into governance, and creating the danger of instability.

Tangentopoli: Bribery city (literally), this was the term used to describe the state of political affairs during the mani pulite investigations. The scandals tore apart the Italian political system, destroyed the DC and PSI, and showed the true level of corruption in Italy by the late eighties.

Transformismo: This was the process through which the parties would come up with a coalition. Part of it involved deals made between the DC and local governments in the south whereby the DC would not wrestle power from the locals (usually Mafioso or some kind of organized criminal element) and they in turn would not demand more tax monies. This allowed the south to lag behind, demonstrating another side effect of the partiocracy that defined the first republic.

1^st Republic: 1948 – 1994(?)

Italian system first of all had proportional representation. As expected it has a large number of parties, the most important of which being the DC, PDS, PSI, MSI, PSDI, PR, PRI, PLI, Greens and DP. Governments are always a coalition, and governmental stability is weak -- over fifty cabinets in the post-war period.

DC (Christian Democrats) dominated, but dominated in a way that was often quite different than in a two party system. They did not have majority; there were too many parties. Instead, they made deals. This was called Partiocracy (see vocabulary list above) In nearly 50 years there were over 50 governments, with lack of stability, strikes, and government spending high. Add political terror, the mafia, and the underground economy, the sight most people saw was that of a chaotic country. But due to the way politics was done – consociatavismo – there was if anything two much stability, the same people were making behind the scenes deals to run the country, even if it appeared there were constant changes.

Institutions

Presidency: The President in Italy has mostly ceremonial duties. He or she does charge a particular individual from a particular party to try to make a cabinet, but usually defers to the political powers and what their negotiations say. At times, though, this power has been important. He or she can delay laws with a kind of veto, but it can be overridden by a majority. The President meets other leaders, and performs ceremonial functions.

Legislature: Two houses, House of Deputies, Senate. Votes were by secret ballot, unlike here. It is a similar system to U.S., but with a different separation of powers. The premier is accountable to both houses, so they didn’t really check each other. Since only coalitions can govern, each house tends to have similar coalition possibilities, so different majorities rarely happened. Note: secret ballot allowed parties to make deals, without the details becoming known. Often things pass which, if you go by party statements, there should not have been enough votes to pass!

The Italian Revolution: 1990-94

The Italian system was sick, full of corruption with ties to the mafia, illegal funding of parties, and partiocracy that during the Craxi years (as we’ll see) reached new levels of graft. The Italian citizens were being bilked by la classa politica, and nothing less than an aggressive attack on the culprits could bring down the system. Sure, there were excesses, and perhaps one could have attacked others like the PDS more, perhaps some magistrates were driven by political motives, but in general these people were heroes, laid bare the dishonesty of the politicians upon which the Italian Republic operated, and in a sense saved Italy and drove it to changes that would allow it fit within the EU.

1983 election, the DC, led by Ciriaco De Mita, weakened to 33%, the PCI fell below 30%, the PSI was at 11%, and the PSI could choose between a leftist coalition led by the PCI, or a centrist coalition led by the DC.

Note: the idea of a Communist government in Italy, even if a coalition, scared the DC and many others -- the Communists would end the corruption, but what else -- take Italy out of NATO? Move to nationalize industries? This was in the height of the “new cold war” too. PSI leader Bettino Craxi, however, decided that IF he could be Prime Minister, the PSI would side with the DC, and thus assure a DC led coalition. (Prime Minister and Premier may be used interchangeably here). As it appears from what happened, Craxi and his aides also saw this as an opportunity to profit from the system; as PM he would be on the inside, and be able to manipulate the system to his own personal benefit.

Craxi: stabilized government, it seemed, and Italy’s economy boomed. Wealth rose, spending increased, and Italy in the eighties seemed more stable than at any other time, Craxi served four years in two governments as Premier. There were problems -- fights with the DC, and a coalition crisis in 1986-87, but compared to the past, it seemed that a weakened DC and a strong PSI gave the system stability, and the PCI was losing votes and perhaps even relevance (early on they worked with Craxi to try not to burn bridges, hoping they could lure him into a leftist coalition). After 1987, even as other Premiers served, Craxi and the PSI were in a strong position to influence events.

1989: the fall of the Berlin wall

The PCI had embraced “eurocommunism,” but the fall of the wall made even that term seem anarchronistic. The PCI decided it had to change. The party leader Achille Ochetto pushed for a new name (the PDS - Party of the Democratic Left), and replaced the old communist emblem with an oak tree, having the hammer and sickle at the roots -- a new way of thinking that grew from Communism, but was no longer communism. But even with a new name, it appeared that the Communists would have trouble surviving as Italy’s leading leftist party. The PSI was established, and seemed more in line with post-cold war realities. The Left, it seemed, was losing out even in Italy.

The 1991 Referendum: In June 1991 change started with a referendum that many had thought wouldn’t pass. It was technical, changing the way that the PR system operated (people could vote a preference vote and a party list, not just the list), but it also showed that Italians wanted a change in how the system operated. That was a more minor change than some of the plans of reform that had been discussed in the eighties, but was a start.

Fights against the Mafia: The mafia in Italy after WWII mixed crime with business, trying to be more entrepreneurial than violent, and using white collar corruption to get their way. Into the 80s violence increased, as did attempts by the state to stamp out the mafia -- attempts often thwarted by how many in the government were actually tied to the mafia. In 1982 Gen. Carlo Dalla Chiesa was killed in Sicily after being named the main prosecutor against the mafia, but at that time the magistrates (using the power given to the investigators) started hitting back, arresting leaders in the eighties and making it appear that the mafia was on the ropes. The fighters against the mafia (Falcone, Borsellino, etc.) had dramatic success, but were thwarted by politicians who didn’t want them to succeed. Too much money was involved, the corruption was too deep. Much of this was literally state aid for the mafia, money sent to projects in the South, especially Sicily, where the mafia was active. It was hardly camouflaged, it was blatant. The mafia guaranteed votes for the DC, necessary during the eighties with the PSI challenge. Murder, corruption continued; in 1991 it was still a major problem.

Operation clean hands (Mani Pulite)

It started in February 1992, when police under the authority of assistant DA Antonio Di Pietro took Mario Chiesa, who ran a Milan institute, into custody for taking a bribe. Chiesa also managed to flush 37 million lire down the drain; they only caught him with 7 million (a bit over $4000). This led to the investigations that would unravel Italian politics.

Italian business people, especially younger ones, were getting tired of the corruption because it hurt their ability to work with other European companies. With the increased ease of financial flows after passage of the Single Europe Act, it became clear that if the business climate didn’t change to one that was transparent and far less corrupt, Italy would not lure investment, and Italian firms could not have the lucrative partnerships with European firms which they desired. Thus, many powerful players refused to get involved to help squash the “revolt,” many think they urged it on and welcomed it.

Craxi tried to distance himself from Chiesa, but the Milan prosecutors kept him in the San Vittore prison and questioned him over and over...he finally confessed. He named names, quoted figures, and quickly went from a likely future Milan mayor with connections to Craxi to the major figure in a scandal. The arrests began in May, as all the people named became subjects of investigation, a literal who’s who of Milanese politics. Then it ballooned as other cities started their investigations, recognizing that the government couldn’t stop them, and the public was supporting the attempt to out corrupt politicians. Overall some people estimate the corruption of the eighties to hit perhaps a trillion dollars.

Craxi had been in line to become prime minister again, but the emerging scandal made that impossible. Suicides began, more people were talking, and the web began to unravel, as people realized that if they didn’t talk, they’d be implicated by someone who did, and then kept in prison until they talked. By summer, the classa politica or patriocrats realized that this was serious, and if they didn’t stop it, they could have their positions challenged. Craxi attacked the investigators as abusing the powers at their disposal for political purposes, and the papers ended up portraying Craxi as a fat cat trying to stop a legitimate judicial investigation. The power of the parties was obviously dwindling, and the elites didn’t know how to react.

September 1992: the lire collapses, decreasing in value dramatically, and verifying the weakness of the state - and questioning the apparent economic boom of the eighties.

In Jan. 1993 Craxi got an avviso di garanzia, and it soon became clear that the PSI as a party was corrupt to the core. Its goal was to enrich the members and leaders, and use positions of authority to collect. Confessions followed, and Craxi realized he couldn’t withstand the attacks. He pulled in all his favors and influence (not as hard as it might seem since most people in Italian politics had been touched if not slammed by corruption, so they all feared the investigations). The legislature tried to give itself amnesty for past acts with a decree drafted by Giovanni Conso. That could have stopped Mani pulite right then, in March 1993. Or at least, it could have slowed them down. Scarfaro, under intense public pressure, refused to sign it, however, and the investigations continued. At that point, the political elite were on the run.

The initial burst had been focused on Craxi, but soon the DC politicians found themselves under attack. The investigations started to get into the mafia, and really for the first time started to break mafia power in the South. This also uncovered many of the numerous connections between the mafia and the DC, touching even Andreotti, a patriarch of Italian politics and someone whose honesty had been respected. Simply, within a year Italian politics was turned upside down, with events moving so fast it was hard to keep track.

Craxi and the old guard made one last attempt -- they claimed that the investigations were a judicial conspiracy by the far left and the Communists -- to fight back. The parliament refused to remove legislative immunity for Craxi, or let Craxi himself be investigated. But this caused a public outcry. The old system was really gone now, discredited.

Late 1993: the PDS had formed coalitions with other center and left parties to win many municipal elections and appear the driving force of the post-mani pulite system. Still, realize that Italian political culture had never really given the left control, and there was a wide range of people in the center and towards the right (whatever that means in Italian politics) that were not happy that the PDS went from apparently nearing oblivion with the end of the cold war to becoming potentially the strongest party in Italy.

The end of the Cold War: Though some found it amazing that the PCI could survive after a name change (first to PDS, then DS), they had considerable support from the left by segments of society that never associated Italian communism with Soviet style communism. Add to that the fact that the end of the Cold War took away the fear of spreading communism, making it acceptable to have a coalition with the DS. Furthermore, they were the only major party not hit hard by the scandals, putting them in an ironically commanding position.

Umberto Bossi’s Liga Nord tried to capitalize on residual fear of the PDS. Due to the split between the wealthy, industrialized north of Italy, and the poor south, many in the North felt that if they had an independent state, they could keep all their tax dollars close by, and avoid having to help or deal with the problems of the south (including mafia, etc.) They started very popular, trying to create a movement in the north for secession. A mixture of things -- accusations of corruption, and a reputation of being regressive and reactionary, kept the league’s appeal limited to the north. Thus there was an opening to fill the gap left by the departure of the DC (which had broken up into splinter parties in 1993, the largest being the popular party) and old system. Media giant Berlusconi, who obviously understood Italian tastes and the role of the media and message, decided to grab this opportunity.

Berlusconi: the first “hero” of the new Italy was Silvio Berlusconi, a media mogul whose political views were a mix of anti-communism, free market capitalism, and a dash of right wing authoritarianism. Arguably they weren’t a sophisticated ideology, more an attempt to apply his populist business success to government. His emergence at first made it seem that the new Italy was going to be more right leaning than left leaning. Berlusconi’s party, which formed a coalition with Umberto Bossi’s Liga Nord, and Fini’s neo-fascists certainly was much more conservative than the old DC led coalitions, and lurched Italy more towards the right than the left.

His party: Forza Italia! It was actually a slogan used by the DC a bit earlier in an election, but now it took a whole new meaning, Onward, Italy! Move forward into a new era! Berlusconi had made his name through the media, using television deregulation of the eighties to gain control of many Italian stations, more sexy and interesting than the state stations. He owned the Milan soccer team, published newspapers and magazines (the Milano Il Giornale was owned by him). He was friends with Craxi and had ties to him, but then again, so did most people who were big shots. If you had to compare him to someone known here, you might use Rupert Murdoch who owns Fox as an example. Berlusconi came on to the scene not just leading a political party, but cobbling together agreements with some of these other parties, including the AN (National Alliance, associated with the old fascists), the Northern League, and some moderate parties to create an alliance designed to be able to win the election and govern.

On the left: the PDS, a reformed PSI, the Greens, Social Christians and Socialist renewal. Plus a few smaller parties. The Left/progressive alliance thought it would win, they underestimated Berlusconi.

March 1994 elections

PR % Deputies Senate

Liberty Pole (right) 42.9 366 151

Pact for Italy (center) 15.7 46 31

Progressive alliance (left) 32.2 213 122

Others 9.2 5 6

The “Pact for Italy” was the old DC and establishment centrists, and they did poorly, showing that their popularity was waning. In the Liberty Pole, Berlusconi’s alliance, his Forza Italy was the largest party in the PR portion (about 22%), but the Liga Nord had more delegates (logical, due to SMD and their regional strength). The Progressive alliance did well, but not what they had expected. Clearly, Italian politics was different now.

Berlusconi for a short time was the king of the hill in Italy, no other party was close. But soon things started to unravel for him. First was the Biondi initiative. Some were very favorable to this decree as something to bring rule of law and rights of the defendants to Italy; in reality, it could also cynically be seen as an attempt by Berlusconi to defend himself, realizing that he was also part of the old system, also tainted by it. It essentially would have halted much of the judicial investigation into Berlusconi.

Berlusconi also couldn’t get along well with Bossi and the northern league, creating dissension within the coalition, and keeping the government from acting with effective boldness, which might have been enough to get the Italians, a bit exhausted from the scandals, to rally around his new government. He left, and a “technicians government” led by Lamberto Dini governed until the next election in 1996.

After the elections of 1996:, the Olive Tree Alliance had a slim majority only by working with the refounded communists. Still, it gave the Premiership to Romano Prodi, not a former Communist (he had been closer to the DC), but founder of the Olive Tree Alliance. Prodi worked with Treasury Secretary Carlo Ciampi, a former Prime Minister (and in 1999 became President of Italy when Scalfaro’s term ended) to do what many thought unlikely: bring reforms to Italy to allow Italy to able to be a charter member of the EU “Euro” group. As late as 1996 it looked like it couldn’t happen.

Prodi also managed to lead for over two years, the third longest in Italian history (Aldo Moro in the 60's, and Craxi in the 80's served longer). Not a politician of the old mold, he was able to keep the government together, partially because so many realized that after Operation Clean hands, it would be disastrous to have continued instability and uncertainty. His cabinet was a cooperative effort, but had a fatal flaw -- it relied not only a very slim majority of a number of parties, but it relied on the old hard line Communists, who only grudgingly (due to the fact they didn’t want to look like they were holding Italy back and thus be punished even more come election time) went along with Prodi’s reforms. Still, the work was amazing.

If Prodi had failed, if he had not got Italy into the Euro club, if the actions of the clean hands group had not died down dramatically afterwards and Italy appear more stable, then Italy could have dipped deep into crisis. But Prodi came in and brought stability and a sense of order to an all but stable situation, buying some cool down time, and letting the clean hands campaign pretty much run its course.

In 1998, after two years of behaving themselves, the Communists under Fausto Bertinotti withdrew their support. Prodi tried to keep his job safe by looking for other partners. He turned to Francesco Cossiga, who headed the Democratic Union, but he asked for too much (formal rejection of the Communists, and a public request for Cossiga’s support). Scalfaro considered asking Carlo Ciampi to head a caretaker government of technicians, much like the old Dini government that did very well before the 1996 election. Dini did quite well in helping make it possible for Prodi to get Italy into the EU Eurozone. Ciampi as treasury secretary (and former central banker!) was probably the most important at designing the right moves; Prodi’s political skills put them into effect.

Scalfaro at the time also could have called an election. But that was not something too many people wanted. So he gave Massimo D’Alema of the DS (formerly PDS) the task for forming a new government, the 56th in Italy’s history. D’Alema is a former PCI member, for the first time the old PCI had the premiership. But D’Alema hardly did anything revolutionary. He took power in late April 1998, and promised to stay the course. He got Cossiga’s Democratic Union to support him, and included many of the ex-Communists. Prodi: began a new party, the “other Olive Tree,” based on the fact he started the alliance, and now wanted a party dedicated to the center/left view. This was seen as a direct threat to D’Alema and the DS.

1999: crisis in the EU! Scandals in the Commission rock the whole structure, which, with the new Euro and a new spirit of unity, threaten the EU’s prestige. Indeed, the tales of abuse of funds, corruption and other problems sounded almost Italian! The trouble with a bureaucracy without oversight! But how to bring stability and competence to the new EU? The answer: look to the man who brought stability and competence to Italy after its “collapse,” a man who helped get Italy into the Euro with dogged determination and a staunch pro-Europe set of credentials: Romano Prodi. He became the head of the European Commission. Trusted, seen as honest and competent, not touched by the Tangentopoli or by the “red togas,” and a very good deal maker and compromiser. Indeed, one thing any successful politico in Italy knows how to do is schmooze and compromise, that’s the art of Italian politics!

The Right comes back: In local elections in 1999 the Left, who had done great before, lost considerably, and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia moved forward, drawing support both from the DS and groups like the NA and Lega Nord. Berlusconi was on the up rise. This was because: 1) some charges have been dropped, and those which remain don’t bother people; and 2) people more and more see that, even if the book might overstate it, the clean hands campaign had a political vendetta against him or anyone who would stand in their way.

In May 1999, Carlo Ciampi, former central banker and PM, and as noted already, architect of much of Italy’s Euro-friendly politics, became President. At near 80 he was an elder statesman of Italian politics, rare in that he remained rather untouched by the scandals, a true Europeanist (he remembers studying German in 1938 in Germany with Americans and others, and joking about how if war comes, they’d be enemies...not realizing it would happen within a year).

2001 election: May 13, 2001

Same basic rules as 1996 election: Chamber of Deputies: 630 members, five year term. 475 in SMD constituencies, 155 chosen by PR. Senate 326 members, five year term, 232 by SMD, 83 PR, 11 Senators for life.

The “Freedom pole” or now “Freedom House” again was an alliance of parties against the Olive Tree coalition. Due to the lack of popularity of Olive Tree, who had gone from Prodi to D’Alema to Amato as Prime Minister in three years, they choose a relative newcomer, dynamic Roman mayor Francesco Rutelli, young (46), handsome and charismatic, they hoped he could counter Berlusconi who, despite his popularity, still isn’t completely trusted.

Results: Casa delle liberta (House of Freedom), the Berlusconi led alliance, won big. As a whole, the Freedom House scored 348 seats, while the Olive tree won 242 seats (the rest went to other small parties). The Freedom House also won the Senate, though by a narrower margin.

But although Berlusconi managed to keep his coalition together, he was dogged by more scandals, attempts to pass laws to protect himself, and a failed bid to use foreign policy to stabilize his rule. He thought the US would easily win in Iraq, and Italian support (which he gave though the public strongly opposed the war) would ultimately give him clout in Europe as a friend of America’s. When the war went bad, his popularity was hurt, and it made it even more difficult for him to hold on in the 2006 elections. Yet he did make them close.

2006: April 10, 2006 elections

Change of law: coalition that wins in the Chamber of Deputies gets 54% of the seats. Berlusconi did this to protect what he hoped would be a coalition for him; as it was, it helped Romano Prodi have a secure governing base after winning a very narrow election. The actual vote was a victory for Prodi’s coalition by 49.81% to 49.74, which is a tiny, tiny, victory. But the seat distribution was 340 to 277 thanks to Berlusconi’s law.

Prodi’s coalition:

Olive Tree (three parties, including former communists): 31.2% (220 deputies)

Refounded Communists: 5.8% (41 deputies)

Rose in the Fist (Socialist/radical): 2.6% (18 deputies)

Party of Italian Communists: 2.3% (16 deputies)

Party of Italian values: 2.3% (17 deputies)

Greens: 2.0% (15 deputies)

(numerous other parties with smaller amounts and 13 deputies total)

Berlusconi’s coalition:

Forza Italia: 23.7% (140 deputies)

National Alliance: 12.3% (71 deputies)

Union of Christian and Center Democrats: 6.8% (39 deputies)

Northern League: 4.6%, (26 deputies)

(numerous other parties with smaller amounts, but only one deputy)

A very important fact: During the entire ‘first republic,’ there was never a change from left to right, the DC always had hegemony (even if another party provided the Premier). Now there has already been three peaceful and stable changes of power, a very good sign.

Finally: other outside factors and their impact on Italian politics:

1. The European Union

Many emphasize the role of economic elites who realized that Italy could not enter the new Europe with the old style politics in play. Simply, Italy had to change if it could be truly a part of Europe. That probably helped push a lot of the movers and shaker in the north behind it, the elites got tired of the old system and believed it was holding Italy back and could create long term economic problems. Changes in the EU made it necessary to change Italy.

2. The End of the Cold War made it easier to weaken party structures

The Lega Nord was more viable without fear of Communism, and voters were more easily skeptical of the DC. Craxi’s power to choose was diminished, and in fact the PSI helped make the DC less monolithic. This also made a real opposition desirable in Italy. The psychological impact can’t be denied, but probably the boost it gave to the Lega Nord was really important. Finally, the DC had been a center-left party in policy style. Essentially, the right was cut out, as were free marketeers. The DC did this to keep Italians satisfied and prevent a move to the PCI. With the chance now for a real right opposition, it was probably inevitable that even without Clean Hands there would have been some upheaval in the DC.

3. Information and Communications revolution:

Italians had always known about corruption, but information was easier to get and harder to hide. This may have made it easier for the Clean Hands campaign to move forward, and helped motivate a desire to act. It could be that at some point the more transparent the system becomes, some move against corruption was inevitable.

As these notes are being written: Prodi’s coalition has crumbled. President Napolitano is in crisis talks. By seminar time we should know more, but Italy may have new elections called, or a new government. Berlusconi wants new elections, the left hopes to cobble together a coalition.